Foreign Policy analyst Barçin Yinanç reviews the results from Turkey’s 2024 municipal elections, arguing that the opposition’s stunning victory and the number of women elected mayors are evidence of democratic resilience in the country.
Last year, I was trying to convince some of my Western interlocutors—be they observers, colleagues, or friends—that despite the slide towards authoritarianism under two decades of Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule, Turkish society still harbors democratic resilience.
During last May’s presidential and general elections, outside observers were wary of an opposition victory, arguing that an authoritarian and Islamist leader like Reçep Tayyip Erdoğan would never leave power. As Erdoğan won the presidential elections, and the opposition bloc failed to secure a majority in the parliament, they must have felt vindicated.
The 2023 elections were free but unfair. Turkey’s political playing field is massively tilted in favor of Erdoğan and his party; the state lavishes funds on his supporters and the media is under government control. Ultimately, the opposition’s own missteps ushered in Erdoğan’s 2023 victory.
Yet, I did not believe that a majority Muslim country in the Middle East could not reverse its trajectory. And women, who tripled their representation in the country’s mayoral seats, shattered the myth of AKP dominance.
A stunning opposition victory
After only ten months, although the playing field remains unequal, the opposition gained a stunning victory in local elections. The March 31 municipal elections marked a historic success for the center left. The secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), emerged as the leading party for the first time since 1977. The CHP won 36 of 81 municipalities—a vexing setback to the AKP and Erdoğan.
The elections were historic as they dispelled the notion that a liberal, secular party would not win in rural, conservative areas. In addition to the three largest metropolitan centers of İstanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, the CHP won the mayoralties of major cities in conservative Anatolia—some for the first time since multiparty elections were held in 1950.
The change in heart even in traditional AKP strongholds can be attributed to Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis, as well as changes in opposition leadership. The AKP’s flawed economic policies of the past decade put the economy in with galloping inflation, which hit almost 70% year-on-year in March 2024.
Additionally, the CHP has changed its leadership after their defeat in the 2023 elections. Under a younger and more dynamic leadership, the CHP avoided past mistakes and pursued a much better electoral campaign. Disenchanted AKP voters either avoided the ballot box or voted for the opposition, signaling to the government that they did not lack alternatives.
Women elected in AKP strongholds
The election results dealt a serious blow to the conviction that women candidates would not be elected in conservative areas and in a patriarchal country like Turkey. “The myths suggesting that women cannot win elections and that voters do not vote for women have been debunked,” read a statement from the Platform for Equality of Women.
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