“It is naïve to expect Turkey to distance itself from Russia. As in the past, Turkish-Russian cooperation will go hand in hand with competition as the two leaders cannot afford to sever their ties. Erdoğan is unlikely to pivot to the West at the expense of turning his back to Putin” says a renowned foreign policy journalist Barçın Yinanç from Turkey.
Barçın Yinanç / Turkey Analist
The breaking news came as a pleasant surprise since Erdoğan appeared non-compromising the day he left for Vilnius. In fact, he added a last-minute condition – the revival of Turkey’s membership process to the European Union – shocking European leaders, who countered by saying that there is no connection between the two accessions. Erdoğan’s intransigence on Sweden’s entry to the Alliance looked unbroken despite pressure from Washington, which started an intense diplomatic campaign as soon as elections were over in Turkey.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s meeting and telephone conversations with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan, in the weeks leading to the NATO summit, resulted in a phone conversation between President Joe Biden and Erdoğan, who complained about the U.S. Congress’ refusal to green-light the sales of F-16 warplanes to Turkey.
In short, as many were pessimistic about a positive outcome from the meeting between Erdoğan and the Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson in Vilnius, Stoltenberg’s announcement came as a huge relief among member countries as the Alliance was able to convey a message of unity to Russia. Making a star appearance at the summit, Erdoğan looked as the man who saved the show.
In fact, earlier, Erdoğan had again taken everyone by surprise when he endorsed Ukraine’s NATO membership during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Turkey a week before the Vilnius summit. But what was even more puzzling was Erdoğan’s unexpected decision to send home with Zelensky five commanders of the Azov Regiment, who were supposed to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.
Following these unexpected moves from Erdoğan, several Western media commentators jumped to the conclusion that the Turkish leader is turning his back to Russia. Supposedly, after having secured his re-election and facing the reality of now having to deal with his country’s deep economic crisis, Erdoğan is executing a pivot to the West. Indeed, the appointment of Mehmet Şimşek as Minister of Finance was interpreted as a signal that Ankara will resume a more conventional economic policy. Şimşek’s statement that Turkey “has no choice but to return to a rational ground” in its handling of the economy led to conclusions that a similar turn could be expected in the country’s foreign policy. A return to rationality in economic policy suggested that Turkey would also seek better relations with the West since that would help Turkey attract Western investment.
But Erdoğan once again surprised everyone by making clear that he was in fact in no mood of sending Sweden’s accession protocol to the Turkish parliament “as soon as possible.” The Turkish parliament is closed, Erdoğan said during the press conference in Vilnius – which was not true – making clear the ratification would be delayed to October when the parliament will reconvene after its summer recess. “Turkey did not say yes to Sweden’s NATO membership; it said yes to open the way to its membership,” said Ömer Çelik, the spokesperson of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) after the Vilnius summit. While there are reasons that impel Erdoğan to improve Turkey’s relations with its Western partners, the Turkish president must in fact also make sure to nurture the relationship with Russia.
IMPLICATIONS: Russian President Vladimir Putin helped Erdoğan get reelected, notably by twice postponing Turkish natural gas payments. Clearly though, now that the elections are over, the Russian leader is no longer in the mood of doing the Turkish leader any more favors without getting anything in return. After extending the grain deal for two months just before the second tour of presidential elections, Russia suspended the deal on July 17. Before that, Russia vetoed the extension of an UN-brokered deal that allowed for the delivery of aid overland from Turkey into rebel-held areas of Syria. The move, which can disrupt the flow of humanitarian aid, has the potential of igniting a new flood of refugees toward Turkey.
Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Turkey together with Russia’s latest moves can be interpreted as attesting to tension between Erdoğan and Putin. Yet, these moves should rather be seen as opening salvos, as the two leaders have to soon meet to negotiate the course of their relationship according to the new realities on the ground.
In the short term, Erdoğan will use Sweden’s NATO bid to secure the purchase of 40 F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes. Turkish experts expect Washington and Ankara to start simultaneous processes in their respective legislative branches. In other words, Turkey will first wait for the US administration’s formal notification to Congress before going ahead with the ratification.
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