According to a report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the world population is expected to begin declining within the next 40 years. This shift, termed the second demographic transition, is attributed to diminishing emphasis on marriage and parenthood, and the normalization of not having children.
Not only in developed nations but also in developing ones, the rates are plummeting. Despite India surpassing China in population size, it’s noted that the current birth rate falls below replacement level, indicating that the existing population cannot be sustained.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, a demography expert from the University of Pennsylvania, warns of an impending “demographic winter.”
Many demographers predict a decline in the world population within the next 40 years.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington forecasts a peak of 9.5 billion in 2061, followed by a decline.
Has the second demographic transition begun?
Historians point out that in countries that began industrializing in the 18th century, birth rates also declined, suggesting the onset of another demographic transition since then.
They emphasize that during the first demographic transition, the desire for many children decreased with the increased participation of women in the workforce, a decrease in child mortality rates, and an increase in average life expectancy.
In the currently debated second demographic transition, it’s reported that the importance placed on marriage and parenthood has decreased, and childlessness has become normalized.
Melissa Kearney from the University of Maryland explains, “If people prioritize building a career, engaging in leisure activities, and spending time on relationships outside the home, they are more likely to refrain from having children.”
The difficulty of allocating time and resources to children, especially amidst economic crises, further complicates the decision to reproduce.
Richard Jackson, President of the Global Aging Institute, underscores that when societies enter a low birth rate cycle, societal norms undergo significant changes: “When you observe fewer people around you having children, the entire social landscape shifts.”