With less than seven weeks until the European Parliament elections on June 9th, polls suggest a notable rise in support for right-wing populist and extremist parties. This upswing not only challenges the established political groups in Europe but also presents a threat of a more polarized European Parliament.
The European Parliament forms the bedrock of representative democracy within the European Union. As the sole institution directly elected by the populace since 1979, it functions alongside the Council as a co-legislator. This empowers the Parliament with significant authority to accept, amend, or reject legislative proposals originating from the European Commission and to make decisions regarding the EU budget.
Despite the European Parliament’s increasing powers, voter turnout in its elections exhibited a steady decline from 1979 to 2014. However, the 2019 elections, particularly marked by the involvement of young voters, saw a notable reversal of this trend with a substantial increase in voter participation. The upcoming elections scheduled from June 6th to 9th present a critical opportunity for European citizens to shape the Union’s future trajectory. Current public opinion polls suggest that turnout this year may surpass even that of 2019.
This development mirrors a growingly positive perception of the EU. According to the Eurobarometer survey, the percentage of individuals who believe that the EU is progressing in the right direction has risen from 28% to 32% over the past five years. Simultaneously, there has been a visible uptick in the acknowledgment of the EU’s favorable impact on member states and the crucial role played by the European Parliament.
However, these elections occur during a period characterized by war in Ukraine, emergent climate crises, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and fundamental queries about the EU’s objectives.
There are apprehensions that parties critical of the EU might garner increased support in the forthcoming elections. According to projections from the European Council on Foreign Relations, parties critical of the EU, situated at both ends of the political spectrum, could elevate their collective seat share in the parliament from 30% to 37%. Fueled by nationalist sentiments and doubts regarding the EU, these movements bring to light societal discontent over issues such as immigration and economic inequality.
“It will be an existential fight”
Populist parties in countries like Italy, France, and Poland have made significant strides, shaping the narrative on migration.
This surge poses a threat of a more polarized European Parliament, challenging established political factions in Europe.
Guy Verhofstadt, a former Prime Minister of Belgium and a liberal Member of Parliament deeply entrenched in EU politics for over a quarter-century, asserts, “It will be an existential fight.”
“I will pit those who want less Europe and, then, those political forces who understand that in the world of tomorrow you need a far more integrated European Union to defend the interests of the Europeans” he said in an interview.
This signifies the ascendance of the radical nationalist right, led by figures like Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Georgia Meloni in Italy, challenging the traditional socialist, liberal, and green movements that have governed the EU Parliament alongside the Christian Democrats for the past five years.
“A weak Europe will be destroyed“
“Extreme right-wing parties are clearly influenced by Russia, by China. [They] don’t really want to strengthen Europe. They are a recipe for a weak Europe. And a weak Europe will be destroyed,” Verhofstadt said.
All polls converge on one outcome: nationalist far-right and populist parties will make significant gains in these elections.
On fundamental issues, the EU’s internal strife will revolve around those advocating for more unified policies to confront looming global challenges versus those championing the sovereign prerogatives of each member state.
While it’s unlikely that those opposing the current trajectory of the EU will seize legislative power, their rise to third place after the Christian Democrats and Socialists would have a significant impact. If the predictions of the European Council on Foreign Relations hold true, “This ‘sharp turn to the right’ is likely to have significant consequences for European-level policies. Especially in terms of climate change and environmental issues.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already softened some climate rules, and the center-right European People’s Party, the largest party in the legislature, has shifted to the right on climate policy as well as migration.
With the fading impact of the Green Deal, the EU will face not only geopolitical crises but also one of its own making.
Sources: RFI, Euronews, ABC News