Turkish President Erdoğan announced 2025 as the “Year of the Family,” describing the fertility rate as an existential threat to Turkey. Although the government plans to offer incentives, global examples show that government policies have not been effective in increasing birth rates.
In Turkey, for the “Year of the Family,” a logo featuring a family consisting of a mother, father, and three children was designed to highlight the importance of building “state-supported peaceful families.” President Erdoğan stated that throughout the year, comprehensive efforts would be carried out under the coordination of the Ministry of Family and Social Services to “preserve, strengthen, and pass down the family structure as a strong legacy to future generations.”
Decline in Fertility Rate
To maintain population growth, the average number of children per woman must be at least 2.1. In 2001, the total fertility rate was 2.38. Between 2003 and 2014, it remained at the “replacement” level of 2.1, but after that, it dropped sharply, reaching 1.51 in 2023. This indicates that President Tayyip Erdoğan’s years-long call for families to have “three children” has not had the desired effect.
Due to these rates, discussions have been taking place within the ruling party about ways to encourage higher fertility rates.
In October 2024, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the establishment of a “Demographic Population High Council” to conduct a comprehensive investigation into the causes of declining fertility rates and measures to address the issue.
Global Fertility Rates Are Declining
As the SES Equality and Women’s Platform, we have been closely monitoring the global decline in fertility rates for a long time.
In our article “Birth Rates Are Falling Globally: The ‘Demographic Winter’ Is Coming”, we highlighted a report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), which noted that within 40 years, the global population is expected to begin declining. This period, referred to as the “second demographic transition,” is attributed to a decline in the value placed on marriage and parenthood, as well as the normalization of remaining childless.
Government Policies Are Not Effective in Raising Birth Rates
In our article titled “Why People No Longer Want to Have Children,” we noted that while some policymakers argue that government interventions can change people’s decisions about having children, the data suggests otherwise. Today, apart from Israel, every OECD country has a fertility rate below the replacement level. The speed of the fertility decline in the last decade has exceeded the expectations of demographers.
In 2022, the average fertility rate in European Union countries was 1.46. In 2023, the world’s lowest rate was in South Korea, at 0.72.
South Korea Spent $200 Billion but Saw a 25% Drop
Over the past 16 years, South Korea has spent over $200 billion on fertility-boosting policies, including monthly stipends for parents, extended parental leave, and subsidized prenatal care. Yet, despite these measures, the total fertility rate fell by 25% during that period.
France allocates a higher percentage of its GDP to family support than any other OECD country, yet last year recorded its lowest birth rate since World War II. Even the well-established welfare states of Scandinavian countries, with their guaranteed childcare and extended parental leave policies, have experienced sharp declines in fertility rates.
Sociologist Nükhet Sirman Critiques Government’s “Strong Family, Strong Society” Rhetoric
Feminist sociologist Nükhet Sirman criticizes the government’s “strong family, strong society, strong Turkey” narrative. Sirman argues, “The future of families is shaped not only by individual choices but also by economic and social policies. The lack of childcare facilities, insecure and flexible jobs for white-collar workers, and policies that make the poor dependent on social assistance…”
Sirman emphasizes that without addressing fundamental issues such as economic insecurity, barriers to women’s participation in the workforce, and access to education and healthcare, merely focusing on fertility rates is unlikely to bring about meaningful change.