In this commentary, our editor Begum Zorlu reviews the dynamics and mobilisation for the second round of the Turkish presidential elections. She states that another term will worsen human rights abuses, the rule of law and the country’s economic state.
Those who are concerned with Turkish politics have been overwhelmed with the announcements, public appearances, changing dynamics and calls for mobilisation in the context of the upcoming race between the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. While Erdogan was able to secure a deal with Sinan Oğan, a far-right candidate who got around 5 per cent of the votes to support him in the second round, all hope is not lost for the opposition.
Even though Erdogan got one of his first defeats as a leader (excluding the losses that his party faced), the parliamentary results were a disappointment for the opposition and civil society actors working on democratisation. The devastating earthquake to which the government responded catastrophically, along with economic mismanagement, corruption and increasing authoritarianism, led many to assume that there would be a substantial fall in Erdogan’s support. The results also caught many by surprise as many of the opinion polls and the opposition candidates were expecting a better outcome. However, Erdogan still speaks to a large section of the electorate by using the populist “we” versus “them” rhetoric to bolden the borderline between his followers and others. He has turned the race into an existential, survival dynamic and used all the state resources to communicate his message. He and his party systematically used fake videos to frame the opposition leader as an advocate of terrorism. Apart from the framing, the election was marked with voting irregularities, leaving the electorate with question marks, still continuing to this day. The race was deeply unfair, unbenignant and misleading. It will continue to be so in the second round.
International bodies also underlined that the elections were not free and fair. The OSCE has issued a statement on Turkey’s election board arguing that they lacked transparency. There was also voter intimidation. Especially the pro-Kurdish Green Left Party (YSP) faced the most intimidation. Also, a Spanish electoral observer group monitoring the election in a majority Kurdish city were arrested and expelled. Voter safety and the availability of monitoring is crucial for the election results.
On the other hand, the AKP could not come to power on its own and had to rely on its partners in the People’s Alliance to win the majority in the Parliament. The coalition involves far-right and Islamist parties like Nationalist Movement Party and the New Welfare Party. Since it announced its support for the People’s Alliance, the Radical Islamist Free Cause Party HUDA-PAR has additionally raised alarm bells for those working on human rights and gender equality as it advocated a restrictive and hateful discourse against women’s and LGBTI+ rights. The party is known for being the continuation of Hezbollah in Turkey. With this alliance, the number of male MPs who hold misogynist and anti-LGBTQ views has increased in the Parliament. Therefore women’s rights activists are voicing that if Erdogan wins in the 2nd round, it will be easier to take away the rights of women.
There was some anger against the opposition on how they responded to the voting irregularities during the election night, and many argue that they did not communicate this well during the electoral process. Many commentators also argue that the other members of the opposition block was not sufficiently supporting the presidential candidate due to divisions within themselves and did not do their best to guard the ballots. This has led to the fear that fewer people would go out to vote due to feeling “disheartened” by what is going on. However, as the international mobilisation a showed, more people went out to vote as the opposition has been underlining that the turnout will definitely determine the outcome. A civil initiative, Vote and Beyond (Oy ve Ötesi) is recruiting heavily to reach out to cities that have been poorly monitored. Hundreds of women, including many journalists, writers, academics, poets, lawyers, rights defenders and actors, issued a joint statement entitled “We are here, we will not surrender to this darkness.” The opposition is mobilising to change the tide. Women’s groups are mobilising to guard the ballots.
To end, especially there was a lot of expectation for the opposition to gain ground due to deteriorating economic conditions, increasing personalisation of power, corruption and the mismanagement of the humanitarian response after the devastating earthquakes. These were the main reasons why Erdogan’s popularity was decreasing. There is still contestation on the scale of irregularities that occurred on election night. Even though Erdogan enjoys popularity, his party has to rely on coalitions at the moment to be the majority. The race is still very close, and Turkey is currently facing uncertainty. Therefore all hope is not lost!