In a recent episode of the Voices on Global Populism podcast, Dr Caner Sayan, Lecturer in Policy Analysis at Swansea University, discussed what Turkey’s hosting of COP31 means for global climate governance, the challenges facing international climate negotiations, and how populist politics can shape climate action.
As Turkey prepares to host the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31), expectations are growing over what the summit could mean for both global climate diplomacy and Turkey’s own environmental agenda. These questions were the focus of a recent episode of the Voices on Global Populism podcast, hosted by Dr Begum Zorlu, in conversation with Dr Caner Sayan, Lecturer in Policy Analysis at Swansea University. Sayan argued that while COP remains a crucial forum for negotiating climate policy, its effectiveness is increasingly challenged by populist politics, fossil fuel interests and structural inequalities between the Global North and South.
Climate change meets populism
Sayan describes climate change as one of the defining political challenges of the twenty-first century, requiring long-term planning, international cooperation and trust in scientific expertise. These characteristics, he argues, often place it in direct tension with populist politics.
“Climate change requires governments to invest today for benefits that may only become visible decades later,” he explained. “That makes it easy for populist politicians to frame climate policies as unnecessary spending or a waste of taxpayers’ money.”
He also pointed to the growing influence of organised climate denial, arguing that fossil fuel industries and governments dependent on hydrocarbon revenues continue to shape public debate by questioning scientific evidence and delaying international negotiations.
“The danger is that we continue spending valuable time debating whether climate change exists instead of discussing how to respond to it,” he said.
Why COP still matters
Despite growing criticism, Sayan insists that COP remains the central arena for global climate governance. Each year, governments, diplomats, scientists, businesses and civil society organisations gather under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to negotiate collective responses to the climate crisis.
However, he cautions that what happens behind the scenes often receives less attention than headline political announcements.
One issue is representation. Although COP meetings are formally open to a broad range of participants, attendance often depends on financial resources, institutional backing and visa access.
“On paper these are inclusive meetings,” Sayan noted. “In reality, participation is much easier for organisations from wealthier countries than for activists and communities from the Global South, who are often those experiencing the most severe impacts of climate change.”
He also highlighted the growing presence of fossil fuel lobbyists at recent climate summits. At COP26 in Glasgow, fossil fuel representatives constituted one of the largest delegations attending the negotiations, a trend many environmental organisations have criticised.
What hosting COP means for Turkey
Turkey’s hosting of COP31 has generated significant discussion domestically. Yet Sayan underlined that Turkey could be framed as a “reluctant host,” noting that Turkey did not actively campaign to organise the summit and only assumed hosting responsibilities after Australia’s withdrawal.
Nevertheless, he believes the conference could create important opportunities.
Turkey already possesses the infrastructure necessary to host a major international summit, while holding COP domestically significantly lowers the financial barriers facing Turkish civil society organisations wishing to participate.
This could strengthen links between Turkish environmental organisations and international networks, opening new opportunities for collaboration, funding and knowledge exchange.
More broadly, Sayan hopes the summit will help move climate change further into Turkey’s public debate.
“In Turkey we often talk about wildfires, droughts, floods or water scarcity as separate issues,” he said. “Perhaps hosting COP will encourage people to connect these events as part of a broader climate crisis.”
He also suggests the conference could encourage Turkish policymakers to treat climate diplomacy as a greater strategic priority in the years ahead.
The implementation gap
While governments frequently announce new climate commitments at international summits, turning those promises into domestic policy remains far more difficult.
Sayan argues that one reason lies within the architecture of the Paris Agreement itself.
Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement allows countries to determine their own emissions reduction targets through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These commitments are voluntary, and there are no formal enforcement mechanisms if governments fail to meet them.
“The system depends largely on political will,” he explained.
Even where governments are committed, implementation often encounters financial and political barriers. Transitioning away from fossil fuels requires substantial investment in renewable energy, infrastructure and industrial transformation, costs that many governments struggle to justify during periods of economic uncertainty.
Climate justice at the centre
Throughout the discussion, Sayan repeatedly returned to climate justice, arguing that those who contribute least to climate change frequently bear its greatest consequences.
Many countries across the Global South face increasingly severe droughts, floods and rising sea levels despite having contributed relatively little to historical greenhouse gas emissions.
He argues that a fair transition requires two major changes.
First, developing countries, Indigenous communities, women and marginalised groups should play a much more influential role in global climate negotiations.
Second, wealthier industrialised nations should significantly increase climate finance while making funding more accessible and less conditional for lower income countries.
“Climate change is a global problem,” he said. “But it does not affect everyone equally.”
Looking beyond COP31
Whether Turkey’s presidency ultimately delivers lasting change remains uncertain.
Sayan remains cautiously optimistic that hosting the summit could raise public awareness, strengthen Turkish environmental organisations and encourage greater engagement with climate diplomacy.
But meaningful progress, he argues, will depend less on diplomatic symbolism than on whether governments are willing to implement difficult political and economic reforms after the conference ends.
As climate negotiations become increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic pressures and competing visions of development, COP31 is likely to test not only international cooperation, but also the political will to confront a crisis whose consequences are becoming impossible to ignore.
For listeners who would like to explore these issues further, Dr. Sayan recommended Farhana Sultana’s work and essay Confronting Climate Coloniality, which examines how historical inequalities continue to shape the global response to climate change.