Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a run-off on 25 October, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after the first round. Neither candidate won enough votes for an outright victory.
With almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro received about 47% and Lula about 45%. The other leading candidates included author Augusto Cury, with 2.9%; Renan Santos, with 2.2%; and former governor Ronaldo Caiado, with 2.2%. Latin America’s largest democracy is now moving into a three-week contest likely to be defined by fears over democracy, institutional power and the legacy of the Bolsonaro family.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is seeking to return his father’s right-wing movement to power. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. The campaign has focused on public security, the cost of living, corruption and the future of Brazil’s political institutions.
Lula acknowledged that he had expected to win in the first round but insisted the result represented a further democratic test for Brazil. “The second round is the moment of truth,” he said, arguing that voters would now be able to judge competing visions of Brazil’s future.
Jair Bolsonaro’s record remains central to the debate. He was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn the 2022 election, after which his supporters attacked Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices. He also repeatedly questioned the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system without substantiating those claims.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, he played down the danger of the virus and vetoed parts of a law intended to support Indigenous communities. He also blamed Indigenous people for Amazon fires, while critics said his government weakened environmental protections.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to seek amnesty for his father. That promise has sharpened concerns about the rule of law: critics fear that presidential power could be used to shield a close political ally from accountability.
The next president is also expected to nominate four of Brazil’s 11 Supreme Court justices, making the presidency especially consequential for the long-term balance of power. Flávio Bolsonaro has framed the courts as improperly interfering in politics and has signalled an intention to reshape them.
The stakes extend beyond Brazil. A Bolsonaro victory would strengthen the region’s Trump-aligned right and could reshape Brazil’s position on the Amazon and climate policy.
The democratic concern is not that conservative views or Bolsonaro’s voters are inherently anti-democratic. It is that the former president’s rejection of an election result, his conviction for plotting a coup and his movement’s attacks on independent institutions raise questions about whether democratic rules would be respected if his political allies regain power. The run-off will put that question before Brazilian voters.