Research by Güneş Aşık and Naci H. Mocan shows that Turkey’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention in 2021 increased violence against women, primarily by intimate partners. The study highlights how government actions send powerful signals that shape societal attitudes and behaviours.
A recent analysis sheds light on the societal impact of government actions, focusing on Turkey’s controversial withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention, an international treaty designed to protect women against violence. Signed and ratified by 39 countries, the Convention represents a global commitment to combating gender-based violence. However, in 2021, ten years after signing the treaty, the Turkish government withdrew, citing concerns that it was “hijacked by a group of people attempting to normalize homosexuality, which is incompatible with Turkey’s social and family values.”
While the withdrawal did not result in immediate changes to existing laws or law enforcement practices, women’s rights advocates perceived it as a signal of tolerance for violence against women. Using two independent datasets on female murders, researchers employed a difference-in-difference model incorporating male homicide data to measure the impact of this policy shift. The findings are stark: the withdrawal led to approximately 70 additional female murders per year, with most cases involving intimate partners.
The effect of the withdrawal was particularly pronounced in provinces with lower education levels and where the long-governing religious-conservative coalition parties enjoy stronger voter support. The research also highlights a contrasting trend following Turkey’s entry into the Convention in 2011. At that time, the signing of the treaty acted as a normative signal against violence, leading to a significant reduction in female murders, especially in provinces with similar demographic characteristics to those most affected by the withdrawal.
The study underscores the power of government actions as normative signals, influencing societal attitudes and behaviours. It shows that the initial entry into the Istanbul Convention combined a strong deterrence through legislation with a clear message condemning violence against women.